Monday, February 23, 2009

Crime in Philly

Economics is about maximizing unlimited wants with limited resources. When it comes to fighting crime we want to minimize crime subject to the police cost constraints.

With this in mind Michael Smerconish writes in the inquirer an article that cites this study. A quote from Smerconish:

They determined that certain factors can help forecast whether an individual is
more likely to commit a homicide (or attempted homicide) while they're under
parole supervision.


These factors are interesting (and maybe controversial).

3 comments:

  1. Wouldn't this cause a huge problem with racial profiling? I didn't read the entire article, but it sounds as if it would essentially fund racial profiling. I don't believe that anyone should be observed unless there is genuine belief that he/she is dangerous. I was in the subway the other day and a white police officer was frisking a black man (who appeared to be randomly selected for a frisk). The man was upset and told the cop to get off of him. So the cop took it upon himself to attack the man and continued to beat the cr@p out of him while he was on the ground in fetal position and begging him to stop. Handcuffs, anyone? I don't know...there is already such a problem with discrimination...I feel like this would fuel it.

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  2. I don't think the city of Philadelphia should be wasting bailout money on trying to predict who is going to commit homicide in the future. Punishing someone for a crime they might commit is a violation of human rights. As everyone knows statistics can be easily manipulated and any miscalcualtion can lead to someone being treated unfairly. In this country you are innocent until proven guilty and measures such as the ones discussed in the article take that away.

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  3. I thought the implications Smerconish makes in this article were ridiculous and, frankly, somewhat ignorant. Yes there is clearly a trend in the age, race, gender, socio-economic status, etc...groups these violent offenders fit, but there is most likely an even stronger trend in the oppression they have faced their entire lives being members of this group. Thus, with Nutter cutting after-school programs, that are essential to low-income children especially, and wanting to pump more money into the prison system, he could just be creating a new generation of economically and socially oppressed people who may be forced to turn to petty crimes which can lead to violent crimes.

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