For a while the courts said that Emanuel could not run as mayor of Chicago. Now the case is being heard in the State Suprem Court. Since is is the clear favorite if he is allowed to run this information quickly changes the intrade odds of him winning as see by this chart. This is shown in the image as the price fluxuates rapidly. A perfect example of information flowing quickly for this contract as we would expect in any efficient marketplace.
Katelyn Frueh, MWF 10:00-10:50
ReplyDeleteThere are two aspects to this article and graph that strike me. While rule have always been rules (especially in the realm of politics), I'm surprised that this allegation about Emanuel has not surfaced until now. Personally, I am of the opinion that its a rather trivial component that has been brought about...I would be more concerned about a person's policies rather than the amount of time they physically were in a certain state. Considering many of his "lifestyle components" still resided in Chicago, I would be less concerned with the fact that he wasn't physically in Chicago, and more appreciative that he was taking the time to pursue his political career and developing good relations with the President. But alas, I recognize that I am not the public and that political logistics are political logistics.
The other component that I think is interesting deals with many of the things we have already talked about in class. As soon as something leaks and sparks the public's interest, it is as good as truth. If it were me investing in this race, I would not let the market's drastic measures get the better of me. I think as soon as I saw this particular poll start to turn, my first thought would be to study the facts themselves and look at why the market has dropped. If I were to find that it is merely a matter of physically being in the city and I found strong evidence that the allegation might be overturned, I think I would wait until the market fell a little more and then buy at its lowest (or at the vest least, buy as soon as stronger evidence proves he is still in the race).
The way I see it, if someone wants to run for mayor of a city, the amount of time that the candidate has lived in the state should hold much less importance than it does. If someone is motivated and dedicated to improving a society as Emanuel seems to be, I don't see a problem with looking passed the issue of residency in order to improve society. In terms of the chart, I agree completely with Katelyn when she mentioned any information people hearing assuming that it is true. With that said, I think this is a wake up call for citizens investing in these trades to become more involved and research what they are putting money up for.
ReplyDeleteDan Wasson MWF 10-10:50
Although bending the rules for Rahm Emanuel doesn't seem right because he is seen as the "heavy favorite," I hardly think that it is something to be concerned about. Rules are set so no exceptions fill in the empty spaces, but in this case, who is it hurting? If people see Emanuel as a person who can be a successful mayor for Chicago, why should a rule set by demographics play such an important role?Emanuel seems to be a confident leader and his followers believe in his campaign. If he was liked before people knew that he did not live in Chicago for a year before the Feb. 22 election, how can it change the drive behind his campaign so quickly? I think that in the economy today we need strong and confident rulers and things like time restrictions should be the least of our worries. I agree with Dan when he says that Emanuel seems like the type of leader who seems like he can improve society. I also wouldn't see a problem in looking passed the issue residency because I don't find it to be relevant to improving a prominent city like Chicago.
ReplyDeleteJessie Fox MWF 9-9:50
After reading this article, I was surprised at how drastically the market dropped for Emanuel so quickly. He seems to be the favored candidate for the election and even if he can not run on the ballot, he has the opportunity to apply as a write-in candidate. I think that the trade immediately dropped because people followed others lead and did not research the facts for themselves. Also, although the length of Emanuel's residency in Chicago is the cause of this issue, I do not think it should be as big of a problem as it is. The public seem to genuinely like him and he has previous experience working for President Obama. Therefore, after taking all of the facts into consideration, I am surprised at how quickly the chart shifted.
ReplyDeleteGabrielle Holak MWF 10-10:50
Samantha Anderson
ReplyDeleteMWF 9-9:50
I personally find this issue extremely interesting. The chart really does speak for itself. Emanuel served as White House Chief of Staff for Chicago's own Barack Obama. I remember hearing in class last week that a democratic nominee in Chicago is almost certainly going to win an election. The chart shows clearly in the beginning, that this well known and experienced candidate was seen as having an excellent chance of winning. However, after questions of his legitimate residency in Illinois surfaced people started doubting the likeliness that Emanuel would be the next mayor of Chicago. This is absolutely evident by the rapid dip seen at the end of the chart. However, after Illinois' highest court agreed to hear Emanuel's case to make a final decision, people felt confident that he would win again.
I personally feel it would be unfair for Emanuel to be allowed to run for mayor. Sure he owns property in the state, and has been paying taxes. However, he spent so much time in DC working. As a result he was not around to hear the needs and wants of those in Chicago. He came back solely to campaign and not actually live his life. Of course this is not a rule, just my opinion.
Zhao Liu MWF 9-9:50
ReplyDeleteI assumed Dr. Diemer has obtained the chart from intrade.com.
I would say that the bidders are quite responsive from the news, however, they are not the "insiders" who possess extra information. Otherwise the bids would never go over $95 per bid.
Sarah Maddox MWF 10-10:50
ReplyDeleteIt is a trivial to say that he can't run just because he has been away from his home for a certain number of days. If he is legally registered as living there, as it says in the article that his driver’s license and property are still in Chicago, then I see it as him still living there. The only reason he was not at his legal residence was because he was working for the president. These decisions on if he should run should be more based on his views and political abilities to run, not a matter of where he lives. As for the graph, I find it to be a massive gamble to put so much stock in something that could be thrown away in a matter of seconds.
Nicholas Camaioni
ReplyDeleteMWF 9 AM - 10 AM
Here is a perfect example of how our digital world and having information at our fingertips is shaping everything around us. Emanuel would have been considered a winner by a "landslide" before all the information about his residency status came to the surface. The graph demonstrates this interaction perfectly. Everyone engaging in the bidding felt he would win the position with little opposition. I happened to agree with them, as working directly with Obama certainly only made his chances that much greater. Due to this responsibility, Emanuel was living in Washington, D.C. at the time. This makes perfect sense, as we all hope to live close to where our jobs are located.
What I'm not certain about is if he should be allowed to enter the race through either a Write In Campaign or by having his name added to the ballot once more. The law of residency has been in place for a long time and the law is final. Yet, Emanuel already has a record of Public Service with formerly working in the current presidency. It becomes a slippery slope when we decide to only enforce laws when we see fit, and I can't wait to see what becomes of this current issue.
Josh Willgruber
ReplyDelete10:00-10:50
This is definitely one of those situations that has been blown out of proportion, yet is an interesting topic.
The chart indicates, from the beginning that Emanuel, a well known and experienced candidate had a decent chance of winning. He's a former Chicago congressman and worked as a chief of staff to President Obama. Emanuel had to be in Washington to do his job. But did he still have legal residency in Chicago WHILE living in Washington?
Emanuel's lawyers raised the point that Illinois courts have never required candidates to be physically present in the state to seek office there.But his lawyers pressed the appeals court to apply a stricter defintion of residency. Whatever the truth is, it probably won't matter.
Chicago is the nation's third largest city, hence, political power, once established isn't easy to overpower. So it doesn't always matter what's "fair." Instead, who has the power-why, how and where- trumps all. Sounds kind of like Philly.
Josh Willgruber
ReplyDeleteMWF
10:00-10:50
This is definitely one of those situations that has been blown out of proportion, yet is an interesting topic.
The chart indicates, from the beginning that Emanuel, a well known and experienced candidate had a decent chance of winning. He's a former Chicago congressman and worked as a chief of staff to President Obama. Emanuel had to be in Washington to do his job. But did he still have legal residency in Chicago WHILE living in Washington?
Emanuel's lawyers raised the point that Illinois courts have never required candidates to be physically present in the state to seek office there.But his lawyers pressed the appeals court to apply a stricter definition of residency. Whatever the truth is, it probably won't matter.
Chicago is the nation's third largest city, hence, political power, once established isn't easy to overpower. So it doesn't always matter what's "fair." Instead, who has the power-why, how and where- trumps all. Sounds kind of like Philly.