Insider Trading?

Intrade has a contract written for who will win the academy award for best picture. Tonight is the announcement (so no one should know who the winner is yet). But there is some suspicious activity trading for the movie "Hurt Locker". The graph is the shares trading prior to today, but those shares are trading up 20% right now and is currently running neck to neck with "Avatar". Is this a case of insider trading (maybe someone out there has peeked at the envelope and has an account with intrade), or someone really liked that movie. I guess we will find out tonight.

(Update at 12:45): "Avatar" is back up a bit on heavy trading.

(Update 2/1): Turns out the Grammy's were yesterday. But my wife did direct me to this article (published yesterday) that would cause the expected odds to change.

Keynes-Hayek Rap

F.A. Hayek is best known for his libertarian views (smaller government intervention) that are spelled out in his book “The Road to Serfdom”. John Maynard Keynes is best known for advocating government spending to temporarily stimulate the economy which is spelled out in his book “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” (“The General Theory” for short). Both well known economists but their views could not be further apart. So what is the natural thing that happens when two well known economists get together? A rap breaks out naturally. I like the lyrics and scenes. Think of the party as the recent stimulus. (I could not figure out how to get you tube embedded so I had to link to Marginal Revolution)

Bernake's Confirmation

There is a very good theoretical debate regarding the importance of the Federal Reserve's need for Independence. For the most part the past three presidents of the Federal Reserve have been independent from politics (which most economists would agree is a good thing). But this is one of the very rare times when the spot light is put on the political bureaucracy of appointing the president of the Fed (or in this case re-appointing him).

The stimulus package after one year

This chart makes you wonder about the stimulus package’s effect on the economy. It comes from Greg Mankiw’s quest to keep our government accountable.

Welcome Spring 2010!

Read this blog and offer some insight in the comments section (don't forget to leave your name!).

Aid to Africa

There are plenty of economic reasons to stop financial aid to African nation, but this is certainly one reason to keep funding.